A.4 Indicators

This method seeks to classify census tracts according to a typology of neighborhood change. This typology is determined using three indicators: vulnerability, demographic change, and the housing market.4 Vulnerability and demographic change are measured using US Census data, while the housing market is measured using King County Tax Assessor data.

Vulnerability

The concept of “vulnerability” has received considerable attention by social science researchers, policy experts, and the media; it has also been subject to some criticism.5

A tract is considered “vulnerable” if it exceeds the county subdivision value for any three of the four indicators:

  • Greater than 40% of the population belong to communities of color
  • Greater than 52% of households are renters
  • Greater than 55% of the population 25 years and older do not have a bachelor’s degree
  • Greater than 46% of households have incomes at or below 80% of the HUD-adjusted median family income (MFI)6


Race: People Belonging to Communities of Color

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Seattle CCD

These maps show the share of the population that belongs to a community of color for each census tract in Seattle CCD.

COO Communities


Education: Adults with Less than a Bachelor Degree

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Seattle CCD

These maps show the share of the adults who’s highest education attainment is less than a bachelor degree for each census tract in Seattle CCD.

COO Communities


Income: Household Earning 80% AMI or Less

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Seattle CCD

These maps show the share of households earning less than 80% AMI for each census tract in Seattle CCD.

COO Communities


Housing Tenure: Renters

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Seattle CCD

These maps show the share of the population that lives in rented housing units for each census tract in Seattle CCD.

COO Communities

Demographic Change

A tract is considered to have experienced gentrification-related “demographic change” during the observation period (2004-2015) if any two of the following four indicators exceed the values observed in the county subdivision:

  • The white population share either increased or it decreased less than -4.7%
  • The share of homeowners either increased more than 3.3%
  • The share of the population 25 years and older with a bachelor’s degree increased more than 6.1%
  • The share of household earning more than 80% AMI increased or it decreased less than -4.6%

Race: Change in Share of Whites

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Seattle CCD

These maps show change in the share of white people between the two observation periods for each census tract in Seattle CCD. The observation periods used in this method are the following five-year spans: 2005-2009 and 2011-2015.

COO Communities


Education: Change in Share of Mod./Highly Educated Adults

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Seattle CCD

These maps show change in the share of adults with a bachelor degree (or a more advanced degree) between the two observation periods for each census tract in Seattle CCD. The observation periods used in this method are the following five-year spans: 2005-2009 and 2011-2015.

COO Communities


Income: Change in Share of Mod./Highly Income Households

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Seattle CCD

These maps show change in the share of moderate/high income households between the two observation periods for each census tract in Seattle CCD. The observation periods used in this method are the following five-year spans: 2005-2009 and 2011-2015.

COO Communities


Housing Tenure: Change in Share of Population in Owned Housing Units

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Seattle CCD

These maps show change in the share of people living in housing units that they own between the two observation periods for each census tract in Seattle CCD. The observation periods used in this method are the following five-year spans: 2005-2009 and 2011-2015.

COO Communities

  1. See Bates, “Gentrification and Displacement Study.”↩

  2. Cardona and others, “The Need for Rethinking the Concepts of Vulnerability and Risk from a Holistic Perspective.”↩

  3. HUD’s FY2015 MFI for the Seattle-Bellevue, WA HUD Metro FMR Area was $89,500; this does not account for household size.↩